Fantasy Football Player Notes

The fantasy track record Josh Allen has compiled is impressive. His yearly finishes in fantasy scoring since 2019: QB7, QB1, QB1, QB2, QB1. He's thrown for more than 4,000 yards in each of his last four seasons, averaging 4,385 passing yards and 34.3 TD passes over that span. Allen adds immense value as a runner. We probably shouldn't expect a repeat of the 15 rushing touchdowns he had this season, since his previous single-season high was nine. But Allen has averaged 596 rushing yards and 9.0 TD runs over the last five years. A spring trade that sent Stefon Diggs to the Texans brings the caliber of the Bills pass-catching into question, but even with a loss of WR firepower, Allen still has a strong case to be considered the QB1.

Cook looks like a locked-in RB1 in 2024. After Joe Brady took over as the Bills' offensive coordinator, his season took off. In Weeks 11-18, Cook was the RB11, averaging 19.6 touches and 104.3 total yards per game. Yes, he only played more than 60% of the snaps twice during that stretch, but it didn't matter. When he was on the field, he was being fed the rock, and his pass game usage skyrocketed. After Week 10, he was 16th in target share (11.4%) among 34 qualifying backs while also ranking 10th in TPRR, fourth in receiving yards per game, and second in YPRR. The touchdown worries and red zone usage remain concerning. In the final seven games of the season, he did lead the running back room with a 48.1% snap rate inside the 20, but that number ranked 32nd out of 61 qualifying backs.

The first tight end selected in the 2023 NFL Draft, Dalton Kincaid had an uneven but promising rookie year, finishing with 73 catches for 673 yards and two touchdowns, good for a TE11 finish in PPR scoring. Kincaid was especially productive over a five-game midseason stretch when fellow Bills TE Dawson Knox was out with a wrist injury. With Knox on the shelf, Kincaid averaged 7.4 targets, 6.2 catches and 56.2 receiving yards per game. He also scored both of his touchdowns over that span. In games that Knox played, Kincaid averaged 4.9 targets, 3.8 catches and 35.6 receiving yards per game. Kincaid has considerable talent and plays with one of the NFL's best quarterbacks in Josh Allen. The Bills traded away WR Stefon Diggs and let WR Gabe Davis walk in free agency. They added WR Keon Coleman in the second round of the draft, but with Buffalo having so many vacated targets, Kincaid is poised to play an enhanced role in the Bills' passing game, making him one of the more desirable tight ends for fantasy.

Keon Coleman stands out at 6'4" and 215 lbs, embodying the ideal traits of an outside X-receiver. His junior year at Florida State marked a continuation of his upward trajectory with 50 receptions, 658 yards, and 11 touchdowns, earning a 31% dominator rating. Coleman initially broke out during his sophomore season at Michigan State, where he logged 58 catches for 798 yards and seven touchdowns, notching a 29% dominator rating at just 19 years old. Notably, he outperformed Jayden Reed, a future NFL prospect, in every category despite being three years younger. Drafted in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft, Coleman joins a team with a strong quarterback and a depth chart he is well-positioned to climb, suggesting a promising start to his NFL career.

Curtis Samuel finished the 2023 season as the WR44 overall, averaging 7.9 fantasy points per game as the WR52 in points per game (7.9). Par for the course when it comes to Samuel, who always seems to string together consecutive weeks of production before seeing his numbers drop off because of injury.
His receiving numbers were nearly identical to his 2020 campaign, albeit he was more efficient as the Commanders primary slot WR. Unfortunately, he was barely used as a rusher with only 7 carries compared to 38 in 2022. Entering his age 28 season, Samuel has never finished higher than WR25 at any point during his career, regulating him to WR4 fantasy status regardless of any new landing spot. He will have his fair share of productive weeks, but nothing to move the needle as a fantasy game-changer. However it needs to be noted his best season came in 2020 under Joe Brady, his new OC in Buffalo. Attached to Josh Allen in a full-time role, Samuel has nice sleeper appeal in the Bills offense, especially with Stefon Diggs traded to the Houston Texans.

Khalil Shakir tied a bow on his second season on an extremely high note. He showed up big in the absence of Gabe Davis, catching 16 of 17 targets for 180 yards and 2 TDs over the last three games of the season. Shakir finished the season with the NFL's highest catch rate (88%) and passer rating generated (141.5). He led the Bills in receiving EPA, and ranked 16th overall in that category among all NFL receivers. He has definitely "earned" a bigger role in the offense in 2024, but he will still have to compete for targets with second-round rookie, Keon Coleman.

Mack Hollins is entering his age 31 season (wait what) and signed with the Buffalo Bills this offseason, presumably to operate as a field-stretcher and downfield blocker. Our new cardio king.
Hollins has only had one productive season in the NFL (2022 with the Raiders as the fantasy WR41) when finished 10th in routes run per dropbacks (93%) and commanded 1,153 air yards as the clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver.
The journeyman new landing spot will likely be completely overlooked by fantasy managers, but a WR running a route on 90% or more of Josh Allen's dropbacks (the Gabe Davis role) is pretty tantalizing, especially at a free price tag.
Just don't get carried away with Hollins as anything more than a depth fantasy WR4/5 a best. Worth an addition in deeper WR formats.