Fantasy Football Player Notes

The Arthur Smith experiment capsized what could have been an enormous rookie season for Robinson. He ranked ninth in snap share, third in targets, sixth in receptions, and fourth in receiving yards among running backs, but he finished as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. Robinson was the RB12 in expected fantasy points per game, but his opportunity share ranked 31st, and he was also 32nd in red zone touches with Smith's insistence on utilizing Tyler Allgeier. If Robinson receives the bulk of the high-leverage touches under the new Falcons regime, he should crush in 2024. Last year, he ranked 23rd in explosive run rate, 17th in yards after contact per attempt, and 25th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Robinson is a locked-in RB1 for 2024.

Drake London's usage numbers were strong in 2023, commanding a 23% target share and 31% air yards share. Over 1,200 air yards, 69 catches and 905 receiving yards, but with just 2 TDs. The lack of TDs positioned London as the WR39 overall, averaging just 8.7 points per game (WR46). Like many WRs, London's ceiling cannot be realized unless the Falcons improve their QB play. Until that happens, he's a talented real-life WR relegated to fantasy WR3 status. Hello, Kirk Cousins and (Michael Penix Jr.)

Kyle Pitts was regarded as one of the best TE prospects to enter the league in years when the Falcons drafted him No. 4 overall in 2021. But after debuting with a 68-catch, 1,026-yard season as a rookie, Pitts has been considered a disappointment the last two seasons. Pitts played 10 games in 2022 before a torn MCL ended his season prematurely. He ranked TE18 in PPR fantasy scoring when he went down, with 28 catches for 356 yards and two touchdowns. Last season, Pitts had 53 catches for 667 yards and three touchdowns, finishing TE13 in PPR scoring. There are reasons to be optimistic that Pitts will rebound in 2024. Arthur Smith, notorious for not getting the ball into the hands of his best playmakers, was dismissed as Atlanta's head coach. Also, it's possible that Pitts was still bothered by the lingering effects of the knee injury, as we learned that he had also sustained PCL damage in addition to the MCL tear. The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins in the offseason, dramatically upgrading the QB position. Pitts has immense athletic talent and entered the league with a sterling college résumé. This might be a good time to buy in, with two dissatisfying seasons likely meaning a discounted price for Pitts in 2024 fantasy drafts.

Kirk Cousins is being tasked with jump-starting a Falcons offense that struggled last season with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke manning the QB position. Cousins was a consistent fantasy producer during his time in Minnesota, but he tore his Achilles on Oct. 29, and as he heads into his age-36 season, we probably shouldn't assume that he'll continue to provide low-end QB1 value. Before going on IR last season, Cousins was averaging 291.4 passing yards and 2.3 TD passes a game. For fantasy managers, drafting Cousins to be your starting quarterback would be risky, but once he's fully healthy, this proven veteran should at least be able to provide solid QB2 value.

Allgeier is a talented rusher, but last season, he was the thorn in the side of every Bijan Robinson drafter as Arthur Smith's prized pupil. Allgeier surprised in his rookie season as the RB31 in fantasy, finishing with 226 touches and nearly 1,200 total yards. While Allgeier shocked people in 2023 with 37 red zone touches (24th) and 186 carries, he couldn't carry his rookie season efficiency into last year. Last season, among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 45th in explosive run rate and 35th in missed tackles forced per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). With Smith out of town, Robinson will likely own this backfield in 2024, which leaves Allgeier as a handcuff only.

Darnell Mooney is coming off a horrible and injury-plagued season, but I can't help but think he is going to be a STEAL in a very bad WR free agent class on a new team. The Bears drafted Tyler Scott in the 2023 draft to be Mooney's replacement in 2024. Mooney finished the season 10th in yards after the catch per reception (6.0) despite entering the year coming off a late November broken ankle injury.

Mooney shined his brightest from 2021-2022 in the NFL with a 27% target share. He has shown the ability to command targets at a high level. In Atlanta, there is nobody behind Drake London, cementing Mooney as the clear-cut WR2 in a Kirk Cousins-led offense.

The Falcons drew heavy criticism by selecting Penix with the No. 8 pick in the draft after signing Kork Cousins to a lucrative four-year contract in the offseason. Penix has no clear path to playing time in 2024, although it should be noted that Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles and is entering his age-36 season. Penix has a strong, accurate arm and is good at sack avoidance, having taken just 16 sacks over his last two college season. Penix has a worrisome injury history, however. He's torn his ACL twice and has also endured shoulder issues. Penix won't be draftable in most redraft leagues, though he'd become a popular waiver-wire addition if Cousins were to go down.