Fantasy Football Player Notes

Justin Herbert's 2023 season ended after 13 games due to a broken index finger on his throwing hand. Before the injury, he had been providing fantasy managers with low-end QB1 value. Herbert's yearly finishes in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks (six starts minimum): QB7, QB2, QB15, QB10. It would be nice if Herbert could get back to the production level of his first two years in the league. Over the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Herbert averaged 292.2 passing yards, 2.2 TD passes and 23.1 fantasy points per game. Over the last two seasons, he's averaged 262.4 passing yards, 1.5 TD passes and 17.7 fantasy points per game. Herbert has exceptional arm talent and rushing upside, but the Chargers will presumably be run-heavy with new head coach Jim Harbaugh in charge and offensive coordinator Greg Roman calling the plays, potentially capping Herbert's fantasy upside.

Gus Edwards arrives in Los Angeles with a two-year deal that is essentially a one-year contract, with the money falling off after 2024. Edwards will likely have a running mate adding to this depth chart during the NFL Draft, but for now, he looks like the team's clear-cut starter. Last season, Edwards was the RB32 in fantasy, with the strength of 13 total touchdowns (fourth-most). Edwards is an early down grinder who only managed a 2.8% target share last season, so all of his value will have to come via rushing. Edwards looks like a player on the decline in the rushing department after finishing 51st in juke rate, 39th in evaded tackles, and 45th in yards created per touch last season. Edwards is currently an RB3, standing alone at the top of the Bolts' depth chart, but his stock will likely drop after the NFL Draft.

Ladd McConkey emerged in his third season at Georgia as a redshirt sophomore, achieving 762 receiving yards and seven touchdowns with a 20% dominator rating, despite a late breakout at 21 years old. Competing for targets with Brock Bowers, one of college football's top tight ends, and ahead of 2024 second-round pick AD Mitchell on the depth chart, McConkey demonstrated his capability, especially in the two games without Bowers in 2023, posting his highest yardage totals. Although injuries impacted his final year's stats, he remained efficient, ranking 8th nationally in yards per route run (3.26). Known for his quickness and polished route-running rather than size, McConkey's agility and speed, highlighted by a sub-4.4 40-yard dash at the combine, make him a promising professional prospect. Drafted by the Chargers who traded up in Round 2, he enters a team with a weak WR corps, positioning him to potentially lead in targets.

Difficult to not view Josh Palmer as a legitimate winner after the Chargers moved on from both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in the same offseason. Palmer stepped up big time in the Chargers offense last season when Williams/Allen missed time. In Week 18, he commanded 10 targets despite a 58% snap share. During the season, he posted an 18% target share and averaged 1.89 yards per route run. In games played without Williams fully healthy, Palmer averaged 10.6 points per game. During the final three games of the year with neither Williams or Allen or Justin Herbert available, Palmer hit a 20% target share and 23% target rate per route run averaging 11.5 points per game (WR25). The Chargers will draft a WR, so don't go crazy with Palmer. But note that he is still a solid in-house option on the roster at WR. Not Quentin Johnston.

After a disappointing rookie season, Quentin Johnston's fantasy value is on life support. The team moved on from Keenan Allen/Mike Williams, but drafted rookie WR Ladd McConkey 34th overall.

The 27-year-old is hitting free agency (again) after playing a complimentary role with the Panthers in 2023. Chark caught a long pass that was initially ruled a TD in Week 18, but it was overturned to a fumble through the end zone. Woof. He is a free agent in 2024 and will likely land on a new team as a complimentary deep threat who misses games with injuries.
Chark was the WR58 overall in 2023, averaging 6.5 points per game (65th). He led the Panthers in TDs (5) and posted over 1,000 air yards on a team-high 31% air yards share (33rd). No player had more air yards with fewer targets (66) than Chark despite two missed games. D.J. Chark signed with the Chargers after the NFL Draft to a one-year deal worth $5 million.

Brenden Rice brings a compelling combination of size, athleticism, and football pedigree to the wide receiver position, standing out with his 6'3" frame and impressive physical presence. While his collegiate journey included a breakout season at Colorado and a productive senior year at USC, his final season dominator rating fell slightly below expectations. Nevertheless, Rice's ability to make an impact in the red zone and his proficiency in catching touchdowns highlight his potential as a scoring threat at the next level. His comparison to Josh Palmer underscores the importance of his quarterback and offensive situation in maximizing his impact on the field. Joining the Chargers in the seventh round presents Rice with an opportunity to continue his development and carve out a role in their offense.