Fantasy Football Player Notes

Could Patrick Mahomes be a bargain in 2024 fantasy drafts? That will be a distinct possibility if enough fantasy managers are scared off by a disappointing 2023 campaign in which Mahomes finished QB8 in fantasy scoring. Mahomes averaged 261.4 passing yards per game last season, the fewest in his six years as the Chiefs' starting quarterback. He also hit a six-year low in yards per attempt (6.9) and touchdown rate (4.0%). Mahomes is too good to have "lost it." The easy explanation is that Mahomes simply didn't have enough pass-catching firepower. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is 34 and may have reached the slowdown phase of his career. WR Rashee Rice put up good numbers in 2023, but Rice is a non-traditional receiver who had an average depth of target of only 4.8 yards and made his living off schemed-up receptions. Kansas City has added a couple of quality receivers, signing Marquise Brown and spending a first-round pick on Xavier Worthy, so Mahomes should be back in business. We are, after all, talking about a player who's won two MVP awards, has had two 5,000-yard passing seasons and has had a 50-TD season. Mahomes is on the shortlist of the best pure passers to ever play in the NFL. Fade him at your own peril.

Once the gold standard at the TE position, Travis Kelce will still be the overall TE1 for a lot of people in 2024 fantasy drafts, but he will no longer be a unanimous choice. Kelce finished the 2023 regular season for 93-984-5. That would be a terrific season for any other tight end, but it was the first time since 2015 that Kelce fell short of 1,000 yards. The statistical decline suggests that the 34-year-old Kelce is starting to slow down, But then Kelce went on a postseason rampage, with 32-355-3 in four playoff games. Obviously, playing with QB Patrick Mahomes is a big plus for any pass catcher. Kelce might not be a first-round pick in fantasy leagues anymore, but he's still an immensely valuable asset.

Pacheco settled in a strong RB2 last season (RB14), but he could have even more upside in 2024 if the team doesn't retain Jerick McKinnon. In the four games he played without McKinnon active, Pachecho averaged 20.2 touches and 100.7 total yards. He was Kansas City's workhorse, as he played at least 70% of the snaps in three of those four games. The second-year back rewarded their faith in him as he was 12th in explosive run rate and 26th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Among 48 qualifying backs, he also ranked 28th in yards per route run. Pacheco had plenty of high-leverage usage last season, ranking seventh in red zone touches and third on Kansas City in red zone targets. He's a solid RB2 who could easily run hot with touchdowns and climb into the RB1 category in 2024.

Rashee Rice caught 105 balls for 1,200 yards in 20 games played in 2023 with 8 receiving TDs (19% target share). The former standout from SMU averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game - 29th. His role grew substantially after Week 6, and the rookie delivered averaging 12.1 points per game - placing him firmly inside the top 20. Rice finished the year with a 28% target rate per route run - 13th among all WRs last season. He was Patrick Mahomes's primary underneath option with the lowest average depth of target in the NFL among WRs (5.2). Rice finished the season 6th in targets inside the 10-yard line - more than Travis Kelce. The only "concern" for the Chiefs WR entering Year 2 is that Kansas City will be a favorite team to add more competition at the WR position. So far they have added Marquise Brown. And given Rice's new legal situation, he will likely be facing a mulit-game suspension, shrouding his availability for the start of the 2024 NFL season.

The 2024 free agent had a year to forget in 2023. He struggled with bad Cardinals quarterback play before Kyler Murray returned to the starting lineup as the WR21 overall and as the WR34 in points per game (10.2). But after Murray returned, the Cardinals WR still didn't produce. 5.8 points per game in three full healthy games before ultimately missing the remainder of the season due to injuries. Overall, Brown hauled in 51 receptions on 101 targets, accumulating 574 yards at an average of 11.3 yards per catch. He scored 109.2 points over the season, averaging 7.8 points per game (53rd) in 13 games played. The lack of production was shocking, considering Brown posted nearly 1,200 air yards, a 25% target share, and 39% air yards share with the 16th-highest weighted opportunity rating. But, it's hard to argue against him in the best possible landing spot to resurrect his career with Patrick Mahomes in an offense that needs playmakers not named Rice and Travis Kelce. He can use his speed to stretch the field and be a threat to get the ball, unlike Marquez Valdes-Scatling. But if he hits, it's likely as a fantasy WR2. And Brown's upside is further nerfed after the team drafted Xavier Worthy in the first round.

Xavier Worthy of the University of Texas has quickly made a name for himself with his standout speed and playmaking prowess. At 6 feet 1 inch and 172 pounds, Worthy distinguished himself early, notching 62 receptions for 981 yards and 12 touchdowns in his freshman year. He capped off his college career with over 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns in his junior year, securing a 30% career dominator rating-the second highest in his class-and the youngest breakout age at 18. His abilities have drawn comparisons to DeSean Jackson, both from Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid and draft analyst Thor, underscoring his potential impact. Set to join the Chiefs, Worthy is expected to compete for a significant role, particularly with the possibility of an expanded opportunity if teammate Rashee Rice faces a suspension.