Fantasy Football Player Notes

The fantasy track record Josh Allen has compiled is impressive. His yearly finishes in fantasy scoring since 2019: QB7, QB1, QB1, QB2, QB1. He's thrown for more than 4,000 yards in each of his last four seasons, averaging 4,385 passing yards and 34.3 TD passes over that span. Allen adds immense value as a runner. We probably shouldn't expect a repeat of the 15 rushing touchdowns he had this season, since his previous single-season high was nine. But Allen has averaged 596 rushing yards and 9.0 TD runs over the last five years. A spring trade that sent Stefon Diggs to the Texans brings the caliber of the Bills pass-catching into question, but even with a loss of WR firepower, Allen still has a strong case to be considered the QB1.

After Joe Brady took over as the Bills' offensive coordinator, Cook's season took off. In Weeks 11-18, Cook was the RB11, averaging 19.6 touches and 104.3 total yards per game. Yes, he only played more than 60% of the snaps twice during that stretch, but it didn't matter. When he was on the field, he was being fed the rock, and his pass game usage skyrocketed. After Week 10, he was 16th in target share (11.4%) among 34 qualifying backs while also ranking 10th in TPRR, fourth in receiving yards per game, and second in YPRR. The touchdown worries and red zone usage remain concerning, especially with the addition of Ray Davis. Still, in the final seven games of the season, he did lead the running back room with a 48.1% snap rate inside the 20, but that number ranked 32nd out of 61 qualifying backs. Cook has top-12 upside, but he should best be viewed as an RB2.

After Kincaid became the starter for the Bills, he was a locked in TE1. In Weeks 7-18, he ranked seventh in target share (19.0%), ninth in receiving yards per game (50.5) and first-read share (21.0%), and 12th in YPRR (1.85). During that stretch, he ranked 11th in route per dropback rate and fantasy points per game. There's room for Kincaid to grow in 2024 with more routes and experience. He could enter the top three tight end conversation this year as the leader of the Bills' passing attack with Stefon Diggs moving on to Houston. Invest in talented second-year players in good offenses. Kincaid checks all those boxes.

Curtis Samuel's 2023 season with the Washington Commanders was underwhelming, finishing as the WR44 overall and averaging 7.9 fantasy points per game. His performance was consistent with his career trend of sporadic production due to injuries. While his receiving stats mirrored his 2020 campaign, he saw limited usage as a rusher. Entering his age 28 season, Samuel has yet to break into WR2 territory in fantasy, typically settling as a WR4 option. However, with a reunion with his former OC Joe Brady in Buffalo, who utilized him effectively from the slot in Carolina, Samuel holds sleeper potential in the Bills offense, especially with changes to their receiving corps.

Keon Coleman, a second-round pick for the Buffalo Bills, boasts impressive physical attributes at 6'4" and 215 lbs, fitting the mold of an outside X-receiver. His collegiate career showcased consistent improvement, highlighted by a notable junior year at Florida State with 50 receptions, 658 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Despite his youth, Coleman demonstrated dominance, outperforming future NFL prospect Jayden Reed in key metrics. With the Bills, he enters a favorable situation with a talented quarterback and opportunities to rise in the depth chart, setting the stage for a promising start to his NFL journey.

Khalil Shakir concluded his second season on a high note, shining in the absence of Gabe Davis with impressive performances. Over the last three games, he caught 16 of 17 targets for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns, showcasing his reliability and big-play ability. Shakir topped the NFL in catch rate (88%) and generated the highest passer rating (141.5), while leading the Bills in receiving EPA and ranking 16th overall in the league. Despite earning a larger role in the offense for 2024, he faces competition for targets from second-round rookie Keon Coleman and veteran slot WR Curtis Samuel.

Davis should already be considered the favorite for the RB2 job with the Bills. James Cook will still lead this backfield and likely gobble up most (possibly all) of the passing game work. Davis has a three-down skillset, but his pass-game chops are not on the same level as Cook's. Expect him to ease the early down load for Cook with the upside to cut into his red zone volume some, but be mindful that the inside the five-yard line pie is smaller in Buffalo compared to some other teams, with Josh Allen always getting a decent share of the work. In his final collegiate season, Davis ranked 27th in yards after contact per attempt and 34th in breakaway rate (per PFF). Davis is a solid handcuff option that could offer flex value in a pinch.

Mack Hollins is entering his age 31 season (wait what) and signed with the Buffalo Bills this offseason, presumably to operate as a field-stretcher and downfield blocker. Our new cardio king.
Hollins has only had one productive season in the NFL (2022 with the Raiders as the fantasy WR41) when finished 10th in routes run per dropbacks (93%) and commanded 1,153 air yards as the clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver.
The journeyman new landing spot will likely be completely overlooked by fantasy managers, but a WR running a route on 90% or more of Josh Allen's dropbacks (the Gabe Davis role) is pretty tantalizing, especially at a free price tag.
Just don't get carried away with Hollins as anything more than a depth fantasy WR4/5 a best. Worth an addition in deeper WR formats.