Fantasy Football Player Notes

George Pickens emerges as the primary beneficiary of the Steelers' offense following Diontae Johnson's departure. Despite competition from rookie third-rounder Roman Wilson, Pickens' consistent growth hints at a potential breakout in his third year. During the first five weeks of the 2023 season with Johnson sidelined, Pickens averaged 12.8 points per game (19th) and nearly 80 yards per game. With Russell Wilson or Justin Fields' vertical threat, Pickens could flourish, as seen in his WR13 performance during Johnson's absence last season. But be wary that the run-heavy nature of an Arthur Smith offense could doom Pickens' breakout.

Jaylen Warren was one of the most explosive and elusive backs in the NFL. This sounds like a hyperbolic statement I know, but it really isn't. Last season, he finished third in explosive run rate, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If these numbers don't jump off the page, then I don't know what else to tell you. Oh wait, he was also 12th in yards per route run and fifth in targets per route run. Warren is a stud and outperformed Najee Harris in nearly every metric. While he finished as the RB29 in fantasy points per game, that doesn't tell the entire story. Warren was an RB2 or better in weekly scoring in 50% of his games. Warren will still have to split a backfield this season with Harris, but if you're betting on talent (which you should be), there aren't many better options to grab in drafts that have his type of upside if anything were to happen to Harris.

Harris finished last season with his third consecutive season with at least 1,000 rushing yards, eight total touchdowns, and 1,200 total yards, and still, it felt like a huge disappointment. Harris was the RB30, ranking 29th in snap share and 26th in opportunity share as he split with Jaylen Warren. Harris still finished sixth in carries and eighth in red zone touches among backs, but he saw his pass game usage plummet with only a 7.9% target share (33rd) while ranking 49th in route participation. Harris's stats were helped by the fact that Pittsburgh leaned heavily on the run down the stretch. This could happen again in 2024, but it's not for certain, and don't be surprised if Warren eats into Harris's work further. Harris is an RB3/flex option in 2024.

After averaging 9.5 and 9.9 PPF fantasy points per game in his first two seasons in the league, Pat Freiermuth averaged only 6.4 PPR points per game in 2023, as he was thwarted by uneven QB play and a hamstring injury that cost him five games. Freiermuth had seven TD catches as a rookie in 2021. He only scored two touchdowns in 2022 but ramped up his yardage, finishing with 63 receptions for 732 yards. Freiermuth is adept at working the middle of the field, has dependable hands and is tough to bring down after the catch. A nine-catch, 120-yard performance vs. the Bengals in late November showed what Freiermuth is capable of. The Steelers aren't exactly loaded at the WR position, so Freiermuth should see enough targets in 2024 to give him a chance at low-end TE1 fantasy value.

Roman Wilson showed promise with 48 receptions for 789 yards and 12 touchdowns in his standout senior year at Michigan (37% dominator, 6th-highest in the class). However, concerns arise due to his late breakout age at 22 and limited overall production. With the Steelers likely maintaining a run-heavy offense under OC Arthur Smith and Wilson's role as a deep threat in college, the 2024 third-round draft pick's fantasy impact could be limited despite Pittsburgh's history of success with mid-round WR selections.

Justin Fields is a dangerous dual-threat quarterback in fantasy football, but how much of a chance will he get to play in 2024? The Steelers acquired Fields from the Bears in a mid-March trade, giving up a sixth-round pick that could become a fourth-rounder depending on Fields' playing time this season. The modest compensation the Bears received -- particularly when there were other QB-needy teams that didn't make a play for Fields -- suggests that the league doesn't value the sack-prone young quarterback as much as fantasy managers may have. Fields now finds himself in the same QB room as Russell Wilson, whom the Steelers acquired earlier in the offseason, and early reports suggest that Wilson has the inside track to be the Week 1 starter. Fields has landed in QB1 range in fantasy points per game each of the last two seasons (6 starts minimum), finishing QB5 in FPPG in 2022 and QB12 in 2023. Fields' rushing production fell from 76.2 rushing yards per game and eight TD runs in 2022 to 50.5 rushing yards per game and four TD runs in 2023, but he averaged a career-high 197.1 passing yards per game last season.