Fantasy Football Player Notes

McLaurin is primed for a bounce-back season in 2024. Last year, Sam Howell and his putrid passing sunk McLaurin's season. McLaurin still led the team with a 20.4% target share, a 34.7% air-yard share, 1.64 YPRR, and a 25.4% first-read share. Don't forget that this is the same receiver that ranked 16th in YPRR (2.20) and 19th in FD/RR (0.104) in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). That talent didn't suddenly disappear. It was depressed by a quarterback last year that ranked 21st in CPOE and 25th in clean pocket passer rating. Last year, he was the WR34 in fantasy points per game and the WR21 in expected fantasy points per game. With Jayden Daniels under center, McLaurin could return to the WR2 ranks in 2024.

Austin Ekeler's 2023 season was a letdown, no matter how you look at it. Ekeler suffered an ankle sprain in Week 1, which led to three games being missed and possibly muted production for the rest of the season. Once he returned from injury, he averaged 16.1 touches and 69.2 total yards as the RB28 in fantasy points per game. It was a dramatic fall from grace for a back that had not finished outside the top-nine running backs in fantasy since 2018 (RB28). Ekeler retained some of his pass game prowess as he ranked eighth in target share and 19th in yards per route run (among 60 qualifying backs per Fantasy Points Data), but his rushing skills fell apart. Among 49 qualifying backs, Ekeler ranked 38th in yards after contact per attempt and 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Landing in Washington with Anthony Lynn was one of the better-case scenarios this offseason. He likely forms a frustrating committee with Brian Robinson in an Antonio Gibson-plus role for Washington.

Let's get this out of the way. If Daniels starts every game this season, his rushing equity alone will push him into the top 12 of fantasy quarterbacks. In his final season at LSU, Daniels rushed for 1,134, and now he's paired with an offensive coordinator who is quite familiar with game planning with a mobile quarterback. Kliff Kingsbury's offense will feature play-action and deep passing, which are two of Daniels' stand-out strengths. At the height of Kyler Murray's powers under Kliff Kingsbury (2021), he ranked fifth in deep ball rate and 11th in play-action dropback rate. In 2023, Daniels led all collegiate passers in deep passing grade and deep adjusted completion rate while also ranking fourth in play-action passing grade. Daniels is the best argument for waiting on a quarterback in your drafts.

Brian Robinson's overall stat lines don't portray how good he was last season. Robinson was the RB14 in fantasy points per opportunity and the RB22 in fantasy points per game. He also stood out in efficiency categories, ranking 22nd in explosive run rate and 13th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). In the 12 games in which he played at least 40% of the snaps, Robinson averaged 15.5 touches and 77.9 total yards per game. He quietly displayed a three-down skillset last season, proving that he can play on passing downs, ranking fifth in yards per route run and 12th in PFF's pass-blocking grade (minimum 20 targets and 50 pass-blocking snaps). Robinson will have to fight Austin Ekeler for passing down snaps and red zone work as he settles into the RB2/3 zone for 2024.

Jahan Dotson's 2023 season was disappointing after a promising rookie campaign, characterized by inefficiency in a pass-heavy Commanders offense. However, Curtis Samuel's departure to the Bills opens up opportunities for Dotson to rebound in Year 3. Despite his struggles, Dotson showed flashes of potential in games where Samuel was absent or limited, posting strong numbers. With the Commanders' passing game relying heavily on volume over efficiency, Dotson, along with teammate Terry McLaurin, will depend on improved quarterback play from Jayden Daniels to elevate their fantasy value. Dotson's red-zone involvement in 2023 signals his potential for increased scoring opportunities with better quarterback performance.

In deeper leagues or leagues with premiums on tight ends, Sinnott is a strong late-round pick. Yes, if you're combing through this article looking for Jahan Dotson's name, you won't find it. After two massively disappointing campaigns, Dotson has given little reason to hope for a third-year breakout, which is why I'm mentioning Sinnott and, subsequently, Luke McCaffrey next. This offense has the potential to surprise people in 2024. If that does happen, not only could Terry McLaurin and Brian Robinson pop among skill players, but Jayden Daniels is likely taking another player along for the ride. The fossilized remains of Zach Ertz are all that stand between Sinnott and a banner rookie season. Sinnott checks all the boxes that I look for with a tight end with massive upside. He's an electric athlete (9.7 RAS) and a widely underrated receiving threat. In 2023, he was ninth in YPRR and receiving grade while also checking in at fourth in missed tackles forced. If there's a rookie tight end that could pop in year one not named Brock Bowers, it's Sinnott.

Another NFL Draft cycle crush has crept into redraft season, with McCaffrey making this list. McCaffrey crushed every part of the process. He flashed big time at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, and then he opened a ton of eyes during his athletic testing. Despite his last name, I don't think many people were expecting him to walk away with a 4.46 forty time and a 96th percentile agility score. Don't be blown away when McCaffrey is starting in two wide receiver sets over Jahan Dotson. McCaffrey is still honing his game, especially against man coverage, but he already has a good feel for and understanding of how to beat zone coverage. In a league where every team utilizes zone coverage on at least 54.5% of their defensive snaps and 23 teams run it on at least 66% of their snaps, McCaffrey should be able to hit the ground running. Last year against zone among 111 qualifying FBS wide receivers, he ranked sixth in receiving grade and 28th in YPRR against zone. McCaffrey is a magnificent dart to toss in as many drafts as possible.