Fantasy Football Player Notes

It was a weird year for Jonathan Taylor all around. From contract disputes to injuries, we rarely got to see Taylor fully ramped up and healthy in 2023. Entering his age-25 season, Taylor remains firmly in the prime of his career. In Weeks 7-18, he handled 21 touches per game, churning out 99.4 total yards per game. While many of his efficiency metrics were depressed last season, Taylor still ranked 13th in yards after contact per attempt, which tells me all I need to know. He's still one of the best backs in the league and should remain a locked-in RB1 after finishing last season as the RB12 in fantasy points per game. A rushing attack fueled by Taylor and Anthony Richardson should be a nightmare for defensive coordinators this season.

Michael Pittman Jr. showcased his alpha status in the Colts' offense, tallying 109 receptions for over 1,100 yards on 156 targets in 16 games, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. Despite limited touchdown production, Pittman Jr. commanded a 33% air yards share and a 30% target share, boasting a high floor. With potential for improved touchdown variance in 2024, especially if Anthony Richardson elevates the offense, Pittman Jr. stands to benefit. The addition of Adonai Mitchell in the draft could enhance the overall offensive output without significantly impacting Pittman's target share.

Richardson is a mystery box of untold potential entering the 2024 season. If he could put what we saw in a small sample last year on paper for an entire campaign, it could be magical. In Richardson's two full starts, he averaged 25.7 fantasy points per game, which, if you're keeping score at home, is more than Josh Allen averaged last year (24.2). Richardson led all quarterbacks (minimum 80 dropbacks) in fantasy points per dropback. Are his passing numbers worrisome? Sure. Are there some small silver linings that lead to hopeful thoughts? Yep. In his final two games, he managed at least 8.0 yards per attempt and at least a 7.1% big-time throw rate. Even if he takes a step forward as a passer, rushing will be the magic elixir that will carry Richardson in 2024. Last year, Richardson, even in the abbreviated sample, ranked fifth in rushing yards per game and third in red zone carries per game. Richardson has QB1 overall upside this season if everything breaks his way.

Josh Downs had a promising rookie season with the Colts, showcasing his skills with 68 receptions and 771 receiving yards. Despite his strong performance, Downs struggled to find the end zone, recording only two touchdowns. However, his production dipped after sustaining a knee injury, impacting his performance in the latter part of the season. Nonetheless, Downs displayed potential from Weeks 1-8, leading the Colts in yards per route run and maintaining a solid 19% target share.

Adonai Mitchell had a standout season with the Texas Longhorns, achieving a 32% dominator rating with 11 touchdowns from 55 receptions. Standing at 6'2" and weighing 205 pounds, his physique is well-suited for an outside receiver role. While he boasts the physical tools and deep threat potential akin to D.J. Chark Jr. or Alec Pierce, Mitchell enters a situation where he may play third fiddle behind Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. This could limit his weekly fantasy production, although his knack for big plays makes him a worthy consideration in best-ball formats, offering occasional high-scoring outings.

Per the FantasyPros projections, the Colts DST leads all teams in projected sacks.

Woods' 2023 season was lost to hamstring woes. I'm not ready to toss in the towel. I will be drafting him a ton in deep leagues, as well as in best ball and formats where I need/want a late tight-end flier. High-end athleticism is such an easy thing to bet on with tight ends, as you essentially need it to enter the elite conversation for fantasy. Woods has that with his 89th percentile 40 time, 95th percentile burst, and 82nd percentile agility score. In a small sample, he also popped in efficiency metrics. In 2022, he ranked 14th in YPRR, 16th in FD/RR, and ninth in YPRR against man coverage. Injuries be damned. I can't say I'm back in for 2024 if, technically, I never left.

Unfortunately, Evan Hull got injured in Week 1 of the NFL season, so we were not able to see him in action during the regular season outside of one carry. Hull walks into the 2024 season as Jonathon Taylor's immediate backup. Hull only had 17 rushing attempts in the preseason, but he finished with a passable 2.53 yards after contact per attempt (per PFF). Hull proved in college that he has a three-down skillset with over 1,400 total yards and a 17.3% target share in his final season at Northwestern. Hull is a high-priority handcuff for 2024. If Taylor misses any time, Hull could be this year's Zack Moss.