Touchdown Regression Report
2023 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | 16 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 144.4 | 1 | 6.57% | 0.00% | 131.7 | 2 | -1 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 16 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 138.2 | 2 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 131.4 | 3 | -1 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 15 | 4.13% | 0.00% | 126.4 | 3 | 4.91% | 0.00% | 132.0 | 1 | +2 |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | 15 | 3.94% | 0.00% | 124.0 | 4 | 4.22% | 0.00% | 126.1 | 4 | 0 |
| David Njoku (CLE) | 16 | 4.88% | 0.00% | 120.2 | 5 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 122.1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 16 | 6.59% | 0.00% | 104.0 | 6 | 5.92% | 7.83% | 101.7 | 9 | -3 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 15 | 5.00% | 4.94% | 102.6 | 7 | 5.01% | 6.58% | 110.6 | 6 | +1 |
| Evan Engram (JAC) | 16 | 2.80% | 0.00% | 102.4 | 8 | 2.90% | 0.00% | 103.3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson (DAL) | 16 | 4.90% | 0.00% | 99.2 | 9 | 6.54% | 0.00% | 109.2 | 7 | +2 |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | 16 | 2.83% | 0.00% | 91.1 | 10 | 3.54% | 0.00% | 95.6 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 10 | 9.84% | 0.00% | 90.4 | 11 | 8.78% | 3.33% | 86.7 | 11 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz (HOU) | 14 | 5.68% | 0.00% | 87.3 | 12 | 5.04% | 0.00% | 83.9 | 12 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts (ATL) | 16 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 81.6 | 13 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 79.5 | 13 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 14 | 9.68% | 0.00% | 77.9 | 14 | 6.64% | 0.00% | 66.6 | 19 | -5 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 13 | 3.61% | 0.00% | 76.9 | 15 | 3.47% | 2.94% | 76.4 | 14 | +1 |
| Logan Thomas | 15 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 70.9 | 16 | 4.90% | 0.00% | 70.1 | 17 | -1 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 15 | 2.20% | 0.00% | 68.9 | 17 | 3.04% | 0.00% | 73.5 | 15 | +2 |
| Cade Otton (TB) | 16 | 5.97% | 0.00% | 66.5 | 18 | 5.29% | 0.00% | 63.8 | 20 | -2 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 16 | 4.29% | 0.00% | 65.3 | 19 | 4.74% | 21.21% | 68.5 | 18 | +1 |
| Isaiah Likely (BAL) | 16 | 12.50% | 0.00% | 62.0 | 20 | 8.64% | 0.00% | 52.7 | 26 | -6 |
| Tyler Higbee (LAR) | 15 | 2.86% | 0.00% | 61.5 | 21 | 3.26% | 0.00% | 63.2 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin (NYJ) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 60.5 | 22 | 1.98% | 0.00% | 70.8 | 16 | +6 |
| Gerald Everett (CHI) | 14 | 4.29% | 0.00% | 59.7 | 23 | 4.79% | 0.00% | 61.8 | 22 | +1 |
| Juwan Johnson (NO) | 12 | 6.78% | 0.00% | 56.8 | 24 | 5.78% | 0.00% | 53.3 | 25 | -1 |
| Darren Waller (NYG) | 11 | 1.35% | 0.00% | 56.7 | 25 | 1.60% | 0.00% | 57.8 | 24 | +1 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) | 16 | 1.28% | 0.00% | 55.8 | 26 | 2.25% | 0.00% | 60.3 | 23 | +3 |
| Michael Mayer (LV) | 13 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 44.4 | 27 | 4.65% | 0.00% | 43.6 | 30 | -3 |
| Tucker Kraft (GB) | 13 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 44.4 | 28 | 5.46% | 0.00% | 45.5 | 27 | +1 |
| Donald Parham Jr. (LAC) | 13 | 9.76% | 0.00% | 44.2 | 29 | 9.55% | 0.00% | 43.7 | 29 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth (PIT) | 11 | 4.26% | 0.00% | 42.7 | 30 | 4.07% | 0.00% | 42.2 | 32 | -2 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 16 | 4.88% | 0.00% | 42.6 | 31 | 4.23% | 10.34% | 41.6 | 33 | -2 |
| Noah Fant (SEA) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 41.4 | 32 | 0.61% | 0.00% | 43.0 | 31 | +1 |
| Kylen Granson (IND) | 14 | 2.00% | 0.00% | 40.7 | 33 | 3.46% | 2.50% | 45.2 | 28 | +5 |
| Tanner Hudson (CIN) | 11 | 2.00% | 0.00% | 40.1 | 34 | 1.84% | 0.00% | 39.6 | 36 | -2 |
| Luke Musgrave (GB) | 10 | 2.17% | 0.00% | 40.1 | 35 | 2.65% | 0.00% | 41.4 | 34 | +1 |
| Adam Trautman (DEN) | 16 | 8.57% | 0.00% | 36.3 | 36 | 10.75% | 0.00% | 40.9 | 35 | +1 |
| Tommy Tremble (CAR) | 14 | 9.38% | 0.00% | 36.3 | 37 | 7.90% | 0.00% | 33.5 | 40 | -3 |
| Mike Gesicki (CIN) | 16 | 4.44% | 0.00% | 35.9 | 38 | 4.27% | 0.00% | 35.4 | 39 | -1 |
| Colby Parkinson (LAR) | 16 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 35.9 | 39 | 6.92% | 0.00% | 38.0 | 38 | +1 |
| Durham Smythe (MIA) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.6 | 40 | 2.26% | 0.00% | 39.4 | 37 | +3 |
| Josh Oliver (MIN) | 16 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 28.2 | 41 | 7.35% | 0.00% | 28.6 | 41 | 0 |
| Drew Sample (CIN) | 16 | 7.41% | 0.00% | 27.6 | 42 | 5.16% | 0.00% | 24.0 | 46 | -4 |
| Daniel Bellinger (NYG) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.5 | 43 | 0.48% | 0.00% | 26.3 | 44 | -1 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 7 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 24.7 | 44 | 3.60% | 0.00% | 28.0 | 42 | +2 |
| Hayden Hurst (LAC) | 10 | 3.13% | 0.00% | 24.4 | 45 | 4.12% | 0.00% | 26.3 | 45 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 11 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 24.4 | 46 | 7.07% | 0.00% | 27.7 | 43 | +3 |
| Will Mallory (IND) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 20.7 | 47 | 0.47% | 0.00% | 21.4 | 48 | -1 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 19.5 | 48 | 1.61% | 0.00% | 22.5 | 47 | +1 |
| Connor Heyward (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.3 | 49 | 1.59% | 0.00% | 19.5 | 50 | -1 |
| Irv Smith Jr. (KC) | 12 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 15.5 | 50 | 5.63% | 0.00% | 18.3 | 51 | -1 |
| John Bates (WAS) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 15.1 | 51 | 3.15% | 0.00% | 20.6 | 49 | +2 |
