Fantasy Football Player Notes

Well, if you had worries about Josh Jacobs following up his nearly 400-touch season in 2022 with a dud last year, your fears were validated. Jacobs was limited to 13 games played (quad strain in Week 13) and looked like someone sucked out his tackle-breaking ability with a straw when he was active. Jacobs wasn't the same guy who, in 2022, ranked 18th in yards per touch, 13th in yards created per touch, and second in evaded tackles. Last season, Jacobs had the 12th-highest stuff rate while also crawling in at 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 44th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Jacobs could be this season's Rachaad White. A back who has an elite role while producing mediocre tackle-breaking stats en route to an RB1 season, but don't rule out MarShawn Lloyd playing a much bigger role this season than many anticipate. Jacobs is a shaky RB2.

Love completed his first full season as the Packer's starter and surpassed every expectation that I had for him. Love was the QB5 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in passing yards and second in passing touchdowns. After he had somewhat of a slow start to the season, Love caught fire after Week 9. For the rest of the season among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he was fourth in passer rating and CPOE and sixth in fantasy points per dropback. During that stretch, he was also sixth in clean pocket passer rating. Love is a wonderful value in drafts if you want to wait on quarterback some and still have access to top 3-5 upside at the position.

Jayden Reed made an impact in his rookie season, as a primary slot receiver for the Packers. Despite not always playing a full-time role, he was heavily targeted, with a 25% target rate per route run and just under 2 yards per route run. Reed led all Packers wide receivers in points/game with 10.6 and ten touchdowns. He finished as a top-12 WR in 33% of his games (12th) and ranked fourth in fantasy points per snap.

I hate to break it to the Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed hives, but when Watson was on the field last year, he remained the Packer's WR1. In Weeks 5-13, Watson led the team in target share (17.7%), air-yard share (36.7%), YPRR (1.79), end zone targets (14), first-read share (22.3%), and FD/RR (0.081). Hamstring woes have plagued Watson for the last two years, but Green Bay investigated further into it this offseason with the hopes of getting their stud third-year wide receiver right for 2024. If Watson can finally enjoy a fully healthy season, he can fulfill the potential we have seen in spurts over the last two seasons.

Romeo Doubs showcased improvement in his 2nd season, becoming a consistent target in their passing game. With 69 receptions on 105 targets for 908 yards and 9 touchdowns, he proved to be a valuable asset, particularly in the red zone. However, Doubs fell short of maximizing his potential within the offense, scoring fewer points than his expected output, creating doubt about his 2024 ceiling. Despite this, his performance solidified him as a reliable WR4 option in fantasy leagues.

Rangy and athletic, Luke Musgrave has the tools to become one of the better pass-catching tight ends in the league. A second-round draft pick out of Oregon State, Musgrave produced modest rookie-year numbers: 34 catches for 352 yards and one touchdown. But Musgrave missed six games with a lacerated kidney and was averaging a respectable 7.3 PPR fantasy points per game before he got hurt. Musgrave gets to play with QB Jordan Love, a rising star. One concern, however, is that the Packers spent a third-round draft pick on another tight end last year, Tucker Kraft, who also had some impressive flashes as a rookie. Musgrave profiles as a midrange TE2 for 2024 fantasy drafts, but he could come on fast.

Unless you've been living under a rock, you're probably already aware that MarShawn Lloyd was one of my man crushes throughout the NFL Draft cycle. While his landing spot has turned many off, I'm not fazed. Will Josh Jacobs be heavily involved weekly? Sure, but that doesn't mean that Lloyd is a zero or change-of-pace option only. Lloyd crushed every part of the predraft process after jumping off the stat sheet during his final two collegiate seasons. In each of those two years, he finished in the top 20 in yards after contact per attempt, breakaway percentage, and PFF elusive rating. Lloyd will quickly be a major factor in this backfield, with his main competition for touches (Josh Jacobs) hoping for a bounceback year. Last year, Jacobs struggled mightily to break tackles and create big plays as he ranked (among 49 qualifying backs last season per Fantasy Points Data) 41st in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. Lloyd is an RB3/4 who can easily out-kick his ADP this season.

Dontayvion Wicks made significant contributions to the Packers' offense during Christian Watson's absence, showcasing his big-play ability and reliability as a target. With 39 receptions for 581 yards and 5 touchdowns, Wicks demonstrated his potential to be a valuable asset in the passing game. Despite being a fifth-round rookie, he ranked among the top rookies in yards per route run, hinting at his promising future in an offense led by Jordan Love. As a deep sleeper, Wicks has the opportunity to emerge as a key playmaker in the Packers' ascending offense.

The Packers initially brought back A.J. Dillon to back up Josh Jacobs. Sadly, with the team drafting MarShawn Lloyd, Dillon's fantasy value has turned to dust. Last year, he was only 48th in yards per touch, 51st in breakaway run rate, and 54th in juke rate. He had four games last year in which he played at least 60% of the snaps; only once did he surpass 80 total yards, and he finished outside the top 30 running backs twice in weekly scoring (RB33, RB69). Dillon is an avoid in drafts and don't be shocked if he gets cut in camp before Week 1.